OFFICIAL 1-DAY AHEAD FINAL FORECAST ENSEMBLE

These images were generated using different magnetogram/flux transport models.
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What is this forecast?
How was this created?
Video

A Total Solar Eclipse is a celestial event that occurs when the moon passes between Earth and the Sun, temporarily obscuring the Sun’s light either partially or completely from the view of a specific area on Earth. This phenomenon is possible due to the convenient sizes and distances of the Moon and Sun from Earth, which allow the Moon to appear just large enough to cover the entire disc of the Sun from our perspective. This reveals the Sun’s corona, its outer atmosphere, which is usually invisible to the naked eye. These events not only offer a breathtaking spectacle but also provide valuable opportunities for scientific research, allowing scientists to study the Sun’s corona, effects on our atmosphere, and celestial mechanics.

The upcoming Total Solar Eclipse presents many opportunities for research, teaching, and community engagement, as the Path of Totality stretches across much of the United States on April 8, 2024. Researchers at the University of Michigan Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering will study and observe the Solar Eclipse through outreach campaigns and scientifically modeling.

More about the Solar Eclipse

Predicting the 3D Structure of the Solar Corona

The images above depict the predicted 3D structure of the solar corona. The high resolution video below, prepared by Xianyu Liu, shows the “squashing factor” of the expected magnetic field structure rotated around. The Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) was used to calculate the three-dimensional magnetic field and plasma parameters based on the radial magnetic field at the photosphere, which was obtained from HMI magnetogram observations combined with the open source HipFT transport model. AWSoM was run on the Frontera supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

Our Latest Prediction of the 2024 Corona

Images below are in solar coordinates (not Earth ground view).

These images represent our latest predictions for the solar corona on April 8, 2024 using four different magnetogram/flux transport models. These images, prepared by the CoronaCast team, show the forecast polarized brightness and combined Extreme Ultra Violet (EUV) emissions. The Alfven Wave Solar atmosphere Model (AWSoM) of the Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF) was used to calculate the three-dimensional magnetic field and plasma parameters. AWSoM was ran on the Frontera supercomputer at the Texas Advanced Computing Center.

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Coronacast 2024

During and before the 2024 Solar Eclipse event, our team is utilizing advanced computational models in real time to forecast and understand the behavior of the solar corona. The Space Weather Modeling Framework, specifically the Alfvén Wave Solar-atmosphere Model (AWSoM), allows us to simulate the solar atmosphere dynamics accurately. This analysis will enable us to refine our models further and share live updates with the public, enhancing both the educational and experiential aspects of the eclipse.

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Join us for the livestream

In an effort to bring the scientific community closer to the public, we will be hosting a livestream on eclipse day to discuss the eclipse and our model predictions with fellow scientists and students. During the event we will be conducting interviews with esteemed scientists from the solar community and can be found on the University of Michigan ClaSP YouTube Channel. The interviews are designed to be accessible to a wide audience, including undergraduate and graduate students, fellow researchers, and the scientifically curious public. Additionally, we will be taking questions live, fostering an interactive, and engaging learning environment.

Educational Outreach: Collaboration with Texas Schools

As part of Coronacast 2024, we have established a collaborative effort with the Arlington Independent School District to educate local students about the solar eclipse. A series of outreach events have been planned for the week of the eclipse to engage students from kindergarten through 12th grade. These activities are designed to spark interest in the fundamental sciences by exploring the mechanics of solar eclipses, the physics of the Sun, the structure of our solar system, and even a glimpse into the life of a physics graduate student. These educational efforts aim to inspire the next generation of scientists by giving them a first-hand look at the practical applications of scientific inquiry and the excitement of space research.

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SunRISE Mission: SunRISE Ground Radio Lab Campaign

In collaboration with the University of Michigan and NASA, high schools across the United States are also participating in a radio science campaign connected to NASA’s Sun Radio Interferometer Space Experiment (SunRISE) mission, due to launch in 2025. The SunRISE Ground Radio Lab (GRL) engages citizen science using a multi-frequency radio telescope to observe radio emissions from Jupiter, the Sun, the Milky Way Galaxy, and Earth. Students participating in the project search for solar radio bursts during space weather events. The data high school students are collecting supplements the work of the SunRISE Mission, and the next major campaign will be held during the Total Solar Eclipse, on April 8, 2024.

Visit the SunRISE Ground Radio Lab website: https://sunrise.umich.edu/

Read more in Science: https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.adk1481

More Educational Outreach: Field Trip for Elementary School students

With support from a National Science Foundation Grant, another team at the University of Michigan Department of Climate and Space has planned a field trip for elementary school students and their families to travel to the Path of Totality in Ohio, in collaboration with the Hebrew Day School of Ann Arbor. The field trip will take place on Monday, April 8, 2024, when students in grades K-5 will have the chance to view Totality for the first time, and learn about the Solar Eclipse with our volunteers. This educational activity will also inspire the next generation of scientists by giving them the first-hand experience of witnessing a Solar Eclipse, while also getting an introduction to the science behind the Total Solar Eclipse.

More information about Solar Eclipses

Solar Eclipses have fascinated humans for millennia, serving as important cultural events and advancing our understanding of the cosmos. The Total Solar Eclipse marks a unique opportunity for observation and scientific research, with impacts spanning from the temperature and local weather to birds and other wildlife. Listed below are more resources on the Eclipse, including historical accounts, maps for the Path of Totality in 2024, future dates for upcoming Eclipses, and articles on the rare phenomena.

Explore Solar Physics Research at U-M