• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to footer
CLASP site logo svg
  • Contact Us
  • CLASP News
  • Give to U-M Climate & Space

Search

  • About Us
    • Contact Us
    • Visit Us
    • Department Overview
    • #18 (no title)
    • Publications
    • History of CLaSP
      • CLaSP History: Atmospheric and Oceanic
      • CLaSP History: Space Science and Engineering
    • Daily Planet Newsletter
    • Team Spotlights
      • Faculty Spotlights
      • Student Spotlights
      • Alumni Spotlights
    • CLASP Inranet
    • CLASP Seminar Recordings
  • Research
    • Atmospheric & Climate Sciences
      • Atmosphere – Biosphere Interactions
      • Atmospheric Chemistry
      • Atmospheric Dynamics
      • Climate: Change & Modeling
      • Weather: Clouds & Precipitation
    • Space & Planetary Sciences
      • Aeronomy
      • High Energy Density Physics/Laboratory Astrophysics
      • Thermosphere, Ionosphere, and Magnetosphere
      • Planetary Atmospheres & Magnetospheres
      • Sun, Solar Wind & Heliosphere
      • Space Weather
    • Theory & Computational Methods
      • Numerical Methods & Scientific Computing
      • Statistical Methods & Data Assimilation
      • Center for Radiative Shock Hydrodynamics
      • Center for Space Environment Modeling
      • SWMF Downloadable software
    • Instrumentation & Observational Methods
      • Ground-based and Airborne Instrumentation
      • Space Missions & Instrumentation
      • Radiative Transfer, Remote Sensing & Instrumentation
      • Space Physics Research Laboratory
    • Labs, Centers & Research Groups
  • People
  • Academics
    • Why Michigan for Climate & Space?
    • Undergraduate Studies
      • Declaring your Climate & Space major
      • BSE Climate and Meteorology
        • Climate Science and Impacts Concentration
        • Meteorology Concentration
      • BSE Space Science & Engineering
        • Space Science Concentration
        • Space Instrumentation Concentration
      • Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Minor
    • Undergraduate Research
      • REU at Climate & Space
      • UM-SANSA International Research Experience for Students (IRES)
    • Graduate Studies
      • Graduate Admissions
      • Master’s Program
        • The Master of Engineering Degree in Applied Climate
        • The Master of Engineering Degree in Space Engineering
        • The Master of Science Degree in Atmospheric and Space Sciences
      • Climate Change Solutions Graduate Certificate
        • Climate Solutions Certificate Coursework
        • Climate Solutions Certificate Electives
        • Climate Solutions How to Apply
      • Sequential Undergraduate/Graduate Studies (SUGS)
      • PhD Program
      • G.R.E.A.T Workshop
    • Course Syllabus Information
    • Course schedule information
    • Contact Us
  • Resources
    • For Undergraduate Students
    • For Graduate Students
    • For Fellowships and Postdocs
    • Student Groups
      • Graduate and Undergraduate Student Organization (GUStO)
      • Michigan Geophysical Union
    • Careers
      • Job Placement Info
    • Security Policy
    • CSRB Building Safety
    • Climate & Space Faculty Committees 2022-2023
  • Alumni
    • National Advisory Board
    • Give to U-M Climate & Space
    • Contact Us
    • CLASP News
    • Give to U-M Climate & Space

Opinion: Quit Worrying About Uncertainty in Sea Level Projections

Emphasizing uncertainty in model projections of long-term sea level rise is a misguided approach. Instead, we should focus on communicating what we do know while improving model confidence.

Written by: ejolsen

December 1, 2021

Written by Prof. Jeremy Bassis for Eos magazine.

As ice sheets lose mass at increasing rates, scientists are growing increasingly concerned that portions of these massive reservoirs of frozen water are poised to begin irreversibly retreating [Cornford et al., 2015; DeConto et al., 2021]. To adapt to the ensuing changes along shorelines, authorities responsible for coastal planning and climate mitigation efforts need actionable sea level rise projections. However, recent studies using climate and ice sheet models are, more and more often, coming to very different conclusions about future rates of sea level rise and even about the sensitivity of ice sheets to future warming [DeConto et al., 2021; Edwards et al., 2021].

Focusing on uncertainty in model projections of long-term sea level rise is a trap we must avoid.

How can climate scientists help decision-makers navigate vague or conflicting information to develop practical response strategies in the face of large uncertainties? One solution that may provide needed clarity is to change our emphasis from what we do not know to what we do know.

Large discrepancies among model projections of long-term sea level rise have spawned calls among the scientific community for scientists to work on reducing uncertainty. However, focusing on uncertainty is a trap we must avoid. Instead, we should focus on the adaptation decisions we can already make on the basis of current models and communicating and building confidence in models for longer-term decisions.

Read the full op-ed piece in the November 30, 2021 Eos magazine: https://eos.org/opinions/quit-worrying-about-uncertainty-in-sea-level-projections

An ice cliff at Thwaites Glacier in West Antarctica. Credit: Rob Larter

Explore: CLASP Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering Energy & Environment Faculty Faculty Perspectives Research Jeremy Bassis

Footer

CoE-horiz-logo-footer

  • Contact Us
  • CLASP News
  • Give to U-M Climate & Space
  • Michigan Engineering
  • Strategic Vision
  • Graduate and Professional
  • Undergraduate
  • U-M Engineering Research News

© 2021 The Regents of the University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA

Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Policy | Campus Safety

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • LinkedIn
  • Twitter
  • YouTube

© 2023 The Regents of the University of Michigan Ann Arbor, MI 48109 USA Privacy Policy | Non-Discrimination Policy | Campus Safety