Department of Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering in the College of Engineering at the University of Michigan

CLaSP Seminar Series - Dr. Greg Mann

Date: March 15, 2018
Time: 3:30 pm - 5:00 pm
Location: SRB Auditorium, room 2246

Our guest for this week's CLaSP Seminar Series will be Dr. Greg Mann, of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Please join us! 

Title: Advancing Lake-Effect Forecasting

Abstract: While much is known about lake-effect snowstorms, forecasts are still typically based on bulk parameter space and pattern recognition. Similar to their their deep convective counterparts, predicting the existence of the phenomena is reasonably well handled; however, specificity of each convective episode still poses significant prognostic challenges.

Application of numerical weather prediction models at higher resolution has typically resulted in forecast skill improvements of mesoscale processes. However, advancement in lake-effect snowfall prediction have lagged. Much of the lag is owed to insufficient resolution of forecast model applications. Moreover, construction of physics parameterizations - especially boundary layer and microphysics schemes - are challenged by the extreme conditions presented by lake-effect convection.

In addition to the challenges posed to numerical model construction and configuration, variations in surface boundary conditions - specifically lake surface temperature and ice coverage - can dramatically alter the evolution of lake effect cloud and snow band structures. Furthermore, those surface boundary conditions also change through the course of an arctic airmass episode - thus lending to a coupled modeling approach. However, coupled modeling is yet to be applied with operational systems to the Great Lakes system. Ongoing initial work between NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OAR/GLERL, and NOAA/OAR/ESRL/GSD seeks to demonstrate the potential value of coupling the developmental version of the operational hydrodynamic model (FVCOM) with an operational short term mesoscale model (HRRR) to address improving lake-effect forecasts.

An examination of the influence of scale resolution, as it pertains to Great Lakes convective boundary layer organization and evolution, will be presented; demonstrating the challenges posed by lake effect to the current operational paradigm. Additionally, early results from the ongoing lake-effect improvement project will be presented - including leveraging flux tower measurements to isolate deficiencies in boundary layer physics parameterizations in lake-effect applications.

Biography: Greg is a Michigan native. Like many in the field. he cut his meteorological teeth on lake-effect snow, growing up in the Lake Michigan snow belt region. Greg holds a B.S. in Atmospheric Sciences - UM AOSS 1994 - and Ph.D. in Atmospheric Sciences - UM AOSS 1999. During his graduate work, he was a UCAR/COMET Graduate Fellow, routinely working at NWS Detroit advancing lake effect forecasting capabilities through applying advanced mesoscale numerical weather prediction. He also served as a lead forecaster for the Lake-ICE / SNOBANDS NSF funded field campaign - hosted at SRB during the winter of 1997-1998. After leaving Ann Arbor, Greg spent a couple of years as an operational forecaster at NWS Detroit, before being promoted to Science and Operations Officer in 2001. In addition to the typical requirements of the position, he has been a leading contributor to Great Lakes applied marine weather research. He received a DOC Bronze Medal and Two NOAA Administrator’s Awards for his contributions to the advancement of marine science and services. Additionally, he served as a contributor to the Joplin Tornado Service Assessment. That work extended into the first steps to modernizing tornado warning service via the Impact Based Warnings initiative - which also earned Greg a DOC Bronze Medal. He served as the chair of the NWS Integrated Science Steering Team along with many other NOAA and NWS advisory teams - currently including the NWS National Blend of Models Science Advisory Group. Greg’s research interests encompass mesoscale numerical weather prediction, ensemble output post-processing and visualization, advanced diagnostic techniques, mesoscale dynamics of fronts, air-water interactions, meteotsunamis, and Great Lakes effects.

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March 27th
3:00 pm - 4:00 pm
CLaSP Special Seminar - Dr. Tom Hamill
March 29th
3:30 pm - 5:00 pm
CLaSP Seminar Series - Dr. Juan Lora
April 4th
3:30 pm - 4:30 pm
CLaSP Special Seminar - Dr. Brian McDonald
April 5th
3:30 pm - 5:00 pm
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